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We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between globalmean surface temperature (GMST) andCoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections.We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMSTproducts and historical versions ofmodel projections that existed at the timeswhen claims about a divergence weremade. The comparisons are conductedwith a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and aMonteCarlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence betweenmodels and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st centurywas caused by various biases inmodel interpretation and in the observations, andwas unsupported by robust statistics.

The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations