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This study assesses theflood characteristics (timing,magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts onfloods at thewarming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by theParis agreement. Three well-establishedhydrologicalmodels (HMs)were forcedwith bias-correctedoutputs from four global climatemodels (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The longpreindustrial andhistorical periodswere subdivided intomultiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. Themeanflood characteristics in thepre-industrial periodwere derived from the large ensemble based on allGCMs,HMs and31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemblemeans in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulatedflood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial andhistorical periods.MostlyGCMsandHMscontribute to the variance, especially for flood timing andmagnitude,while the selectionof 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance forflood frequency. The comparisonbetween the ensemblemeans shows that there are already some changes inflood characteristics between thepre-industrial andhistorical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlierflooding for theRhine (1.5 K scenario) andUpperMississippi (3.0 K scenario). Theflood magnitudes showa substantial increase in theRhine andUpperYellowonly under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occurmore frequently in theRhineunder the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in theUpperMississippi under all scenarios.

Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level