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Disaster is a series of events that threaten people’s lives. The causes can be from natural factors and human factors that can cause casualties, environmental damage, property losses and psychological impacts. Historically, there have been many disasters in Indonesia, especially in the Aceh province, which has stimulated the government to produce policies of reducing the incidence of disasters, especially disasters caused by human error. The number of floods, fires and landslides occurring annually tends to be similar. Unlike the catastrophic tidal waves, tornadoes, earthquakes, and droughts, such disasters occur randomly and some never occur. Therefore, a method is needed to predict disaster event opportunities, one of which is the Markov chain method. To find out the predicted value of disaster opportunities in the Aceh province for 2017-2021. Based on the results of the study, it is known that the predicted probability of disasters in the province of Aceh in 2017-2021 does not increase and does not decrease in extreme ways from year to year, the accuracy of the predictive value of opportunities for disasters caused by humans (landslides, fires, and floods) in the Province of Aceh in 2017-2021 are classified as reasonable with error value of 26.93%.

Application of the stochastic transition matrix as a prediction pattern for the occurrence of disasters in Aceh province in 2017-2021