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This work consists of an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with anopinion dynamics. Our objective was to study how disease risk perception caninfluence opinions about vaccination and therefore the spreading of thedisease. Differently from previous works we have considered continuousopinions. The epidemic spreading is governed by a SIS-like model with an extravaccinated state. In our model individuals vaccinate with a probabilityproportional to their opinions. The opinions change due to peer influence inpairwise interactions. The epidemic feedback to the opinion dynamics acts as anexternal field increasing the vaccination probability. We performed Monte Carlosimulations in fully-connected populations. Interestingly we observed theemergence of a first-order phase transition, besides the usual active-absorbingphase transition presented in the SIS model. Our simulations also show thatwith a certain combination of parameters, an increment in the initial fractionof the population that is pro-vaccine has a twofold effect: it can lead tosmaller epidemic outbreaks in the short term, but it also contributes to thesurvival of the chain of infections in the long term. Our results also suggestthat it is possible that more effective vaccines can decrease the long-termvaccine coverage. This is a counterintuitive outcome, but it is in line withempirical observations that vaccines can become a victim of their own success.

Sudden transitions in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination