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A general criterion is proposed and found to successfully predict theemergence of chirping oscillations of unstable Alfv\'enic eigenmodes in tokamakplasma experiments. The model includes realistic eigenfunction structure,detailed phase-space dependences of the instability drive, stochasticscattering and the Coulomb drag. The stochastic scattering combines the effectsof collisional pitch angle scattering and micro-turbulence spatial diffusion.The latter mechanism is essential to accurately identify the transition betweenthe fixed-frequency mode behavior and rapid chirping in tokamaks and to resolvethe disparity with respect to chirping observation in spherical andconventional tokamaks.

Prediction of Nonlinear Evolution Character of Energetic-Particle-Driven Instabilities