English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

The so-called drag-based model (DBM) simulates analytically the propagationof coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and allows theprediction of their arrival times and impact speeds at any point in theheliosphere ("target"). The DBM is based on the assumption that beyond adistance of about 20 solar radii from the Sun, the dominant force acting onCMEs is the "aerodynamic" drag force. In the standard form of DBM, the userprovisionally chooses values for the model input parameters, by which thekinematics of the CME over the entire Sun--"target" distance range is defined.The choice of model input parameters is usually based on several previouslyundertaken statistical studies. In other words, the model is used by ad hocimplementation of statistics-based values of the input parameters, which arenot necessarily appropriate for the CME under study. Furthermore, such aprocedure lacks quantitative information on how well the simulation reproducesthe coronagraphically observed kinematics of the CME, and thus does not providean estimate of the reliability of the arrival prediction. In this paper weadvance the DBM by adopting it in a form that employs the CME observations overa given distance range to evaluate the most suitable model input parameters fora given CME by means of the least-squares fitting. Furthermore, the new versionof the model automatically responds to any significant change of the conditionsin the ambient medium (solar wind speed, density, CME--CME interactions, etc.)by changing the model input parameters according to changes in the CMEkinematics. The advanced DBM is shaped in a form that can be readily employedin an operational system for real-time space-weather forecasting by promptlyadjusting to a successively expanding observational dataset, thus providing asuccessively improving prediction of the CME arrival.

Heliospheric Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: Drag-Based Model Fitting