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Kepler-296 is a binary star system with two M-dwarf components separated by0.2 arcsec. Five transiting planets have been confirmed to be associated withthe Kepler-296 system; given the evidence to date, however, the planets couldin principle orbit either star. This ambiguity has made it difficult toconstrain both the orbital and physical properties of the planets. Using bothstatistical and analytical arguments, this paper shows that all five planetsare highly likely to orbit the primary star in this system. We performed aMarkov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation using a five transiting planet model,leaving the stellar density and dilution with uniform priors. Using importancesampling, we compared the model probabilities under the priors of the planetsorbiting either the brighter or the fainter component of the binary. A modelwhere the planets orbit the brighter component, Kepler-296A, is stronglypreferred by the data. Combined with our assertion that all five planets orbitthe same star, the two outer planets in the system, Kepler-296 Ae andKepler-296 Af, have radii of 1.53 +/- 0.26 and 1.80 +/- 0.31 R_earth,respectively, and receive incident stellar fluxes of 1.40 +/- 0.23 and 0.62 +/-0.10 times the incident flux the Earth receives from the Sun. This level ofirradiation places both planets within or close to the circumstellar habitablezone of their parent star.

The Five Planets in the Kepler-296 Binary System All Orbit the Primary: A Statistical and Analytical Analysis