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The dependence of coastal communities on marine transportation can challenge a region’s capability to withstand large disruptions, especially in regions susceptible to large natural hazards. Here, a process is presented to model and simulate marine transport earthquake resilience for coastal communities. The model is created using the Graph Model for Operational Resilience. The approach includes the interdependent relationships of different infrastructure sectors and allows for estimation of recovery timelines following disruption. A case-study application in Southern British Columbia, Canada for freight and public transportation ferry service between mainland Vancouver and Vancouver Island is presented. The disruption scenario used in this case study is a magnitude nine Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. The step-by-step recovery timeline produced by the model can provide stakeholders with a concrete example of how recovery could unfold for their operations. The case-study results indicate that berth infrastructure recovery is often the key limiting factor for terminal recovery.

Modelling the marine transport resilience of Vancouver Island in a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake scenario