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Against the backdrop of rapid population aging, we examine the impacts of population aging on pharmaceutical innovation based on the panel data of OECD countries between 1997 and 2018. We show that population aging effectively boosts the quantity and quality of pharmaceutical innovation before the share of older adults approaches 14%, the threshold for the aged society. Once the country enters the aged society, however, population aging is no longer associated with the quantity of pharmaceutical patents, and even significantly depresses the quality of patenting. Moreover, the type of welfare state regimes plays a notable moderating role. High welfare states could effectively amplify the positive effects of aging or attenuate the negative impacts of aging on pharmaceutical innovation. Our results suggest that the dividend of aging in pharmaceutical industry does exist in the early stage of aging, and the government needs to plan ahead to ameliorate the deterioration of innovation in aged and super-aged societies.

Impacts of population aging on the quantity and quality of pharmaceutical innovation: evidence from OECD countries