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Strategic analysts and planners need distinct capabilities to include extensive disciplinary expertise and a broad understanding of the world and methodological expertise for dealing with innovation, discovery, and surprise. Specifically, the analyst needs to evaluate the robustness of a policy to the uncertainty of an assessment. The analyst must have both topical expertise in the disciplines underlying the analysis, as well as decision-theoretic expertise in managing uncertainty. This is demonstrated by applying info-gap decision theory and the concept of robust-satisficing to the analysis of policy in response to al-Qaeda prior to 11 September 2001, which illustrates the combination of topical and decision-theoretic expertise.

What Strategic Analysts and Planners for National Security Need to Know