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Does planning for higher density increase housing development and decrease prices? We study nineteen repeatedly upzoned densification areas in Brisbane, Australia. We create a site-level dataset on dwelling stock, planning regulations, and prices, comprising all 25,775 sites in these areas. Only 2% of the zoned capacity was used in any five-year period. Zoned capacity doubled over the twenty-year study period, but 78% of sites with zoned capacity in the first period remained undeveloped. Higher rates of new housing supply are robustly related to higher prices. Zoned capacity has no relationship to price across numerous regression models.

We Zoned for Density and Got Higher House Prices: Supply and Price Effects of Upzoning over 20 Years