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Protecting human life and property from wildfires is a primary concern to wildland fire management agencies. Under certain environmental conditions and wildfire situations, burning embers can be lofted across a natural or man-made barrier devoid of fuel, such as a river or road, resulting in new ignitions downwind of the main advancing fire front. This phenomenon, referred to as a “spot fire” or “spotting,” can put a considerable strain on firefighting operations and pose a grave risk to wildland-urban interface communities. In this article, we formulate the process of spot fire development, and derive the distribution of the time to the first spot fire occurring beyond a barrier to fire spread. A simulator is developed in the framework of generating burning embers from an active wildfire that may result in a spot fire. With the generated data, we demonstrate how to estimate the rate of developing spot fires and identify significant covariates based on data in two practical formats.

On the time to first spotting in wildland fires