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Since mid-2021, Moscow has adhered to a foreign policy vis-à-vis the Taliban referred to here as “muted diplomacy”. Russia has not officially recognized the Taliban, but the Kremlin maintains trade relations with the newly reestablished Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. From Moscow’s perspective, it is prudent to engage with the Taliban, for there is no other actor that can exert political authority within the war-torn country. Yet the Taliban also plays an important role with regards to Russia’s regional ambitions pertaining to Central Asia. In considering how the Russo-Ukraine War has undermined Moscow’s standing among the Central Asian Republics, Russia seeks to preserve its hegemony, partially by restricting the “Stans” potential to acquire geopolitical maneuverability vis-à-vis Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Consequently, Russia’s evolving foreign policy towards the Taliban is grounded in delaying other nearby states’ normalization of relations with Kabul in the hopes of maintaining its regional stature, as well as in engaging with the sole entity in Afghanistan that stands a chance of averting a state collapse, redolent of the 1990s.

Kabul and the Kremlin: Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy Towards the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan