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Few evidence-based tools exist to support identification of older community dwelling adults at risk for unwanted transitions in living environment leading to missed opportunities to modify care plans to support aging-in-place and/or establish end-of-life care goals. An interpretable and actionable tool for assessing a person’s risk of experiencing a transition is introduced. Logistic regression analysis of 14,772 transition opportunities (i.e. 12-month periods) for 4,431 respondents to the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) rounds 1–7. Results were visualized in a nomogram. Unmarried males of increasing age with chronic disease, greater functional dependence, overnight hospitalizations, not living in a single-family home, and limited social network, have elevated risk of experiencing a transition in living environment in a 12-month period. Homecare nurses are uniquely qualified to identify social determinants of health and can use this evidence-based tool to identify individuals who may benefit from transitional care assistance.

TILE-12 index: an interpretable instrument for identifying older adults at risk for transitions in living environment within the next 12-months