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Significance The factors controlling the large regional variations in simulated responses of extreme precipitation to global warming are poorly understood. Standard diagnostics break the responses into thermodynamic and dynamic components associated with moisture and vertical motion. The vertical motion is the more poorly understood; we use a method to understand it by decomposing it into dry and moist components. The moist component can be predicted by a simple model that explains how dynamics and thermodynamics are coupled. This allows us to explain the regional variations in vertical motion, and thus extreme precipitation, in terms of the dry quasigeostrophic forcing and moisture, a deeper level of explanation than is available from the thermodynamic–dynamic decomposition on its own.

Dry and moist dynamics shape regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity