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The prediction of the techno-economic performances of future concentrated solar power (CSP) solar tower (ST) with thermal energy storage (TES) plants is challenging. Nevertheless, this information is fundamental to energy policymakers. This work aims to fill the knowledge gap regarding estimations of costs, amount, and quality of electricity produced by these plants over their lifetime. Every estimate should be based on real-world data of actual costs incurred to build and maintain constructed plants, and their actual electricity production, sampled with high frequency, to be reliable. Here we discuss as the available information is insufficient. There has been so far very limited transparency on the real cost and performance of CSP plants built and operated worldwide, and in the very few cases where data has been made public, for example, Crescent Dunes in the United States, costs have been much higher than expected, while annual average capacity factors have been much less. Important statistical parameters such as the standard deviation of the capacity factor with high-frequency sampling have never been provided. We conclude as the techno-economic performances of these plants are therefore unpredictable with accuracy until a significant number of plants will be built and operated, their costs and operating parameters will be shared, and their delivered techno-economic performances will be compared to the modeled values, finally permitting validation of the techno-economic analysis tools.

Techno-economic performances of future concentrating solar power plants in Australia