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Purpose: In the years 1993-1996 a number of presumably false-positive breast cancer diagnoses were made by a pathologist in Essen. A follow-up, undertaken 15 years later, investigated how many women had tumour recurrence and/or metastasis or had died from breast cancer. Material and Methods: A total of 151 (68 %) out of 222 women could be traced. One hundred and forty-seven (66.2 %) of the 222 women were alive. The observed survival rate, number of recurrences and/or metastases, and number of deaths from breast cancer were compared with data from the Munich Tumour Registry. The number of breast cancer cases among daughters of the affected women was ascertained. Results: The total observed survival rate at follow-up after 15 years was 93 %, a much higher figure than the survival rate of 45 % given by the Munich Tumour Registry. Recurrence and/or metastasis or death from breast cancer occurred in 9/222 cases (4.1 %). The incidence for these events calculated according to data from the Munich Tumour Registry is 13 %. Two daughters (2.2 %) out of a total of 90 were diagnosed with breast cancer whereas, according to the German Cancer Research Centre, the expected rate would have been between 5 and 10 %. Conclusions: The results of our follow-up after 15 years show that more women survived than expected and that the number of recurrences and/or metastases and deaths due to breast cancer was lower than expected. Fewer daughters of affected women were diagnosed with breast cancer than expected. These results support our suspicion that not all women diagnosed with breast cancer by a pathologist in Essen actually had breast cancer.

Epidemiological Follow-up 15 Years after the Breast Cancer Scandal in Essen