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At this point in time, there is very little empirical evidence on thelikelihood of a space-faring species originating in the biosphere of ahabitable world. However, there is a tension between the expectation that sucha probability is relatively high (given our own origins on Earth), and the lackof any basis for believing the Solar System has ever been visited by anextraterrestrial colonization effort. This paper seeks to place upper limits onthe probability of an interstellar civilization arising on a habitable planetin its stellar system, using a percolation model to simulate the progress ofsuch a hypothetical civilization's colonization efforts in the local Solarneighborhood. To be as realistic as possible, the actual physical positions andcharacteristics of all stars within 40 parsecs of the Solar System are used aspossible colony sites in the percolation process. If an interstellarcivilization is very likely to have such colonization programs, and they cantravel over large distances, then the upper bound on the likelihood of such aspecies arising per habitable world is on the order of $10^{-3}$; on the otherhand, if civilizations are not prone to colonize their neighbors, or do nottravel very far, then the upper limiting probability is much larger, even oforder one.

Upper limits on the probability of an interstellar civilization arising in the local Solar neighborhood