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Geomechanical data are never sufficient in quantity or adequately precise and accurate for design purposes in mining and civil engineering. The objective of this paper is to show the variability of rock properties at the sampled point in the roadway’s roof, and then, how the statistical processing of the available geomechanical data can affect the results of numerical modelling of the roadway’s stability. Four cases were applied in the numerical analysis, using average values (the most common in geomechanical data analysis), average minus standard deviation, median, and average value minus statistical error. The study show that different approach to the same geomechanical data set can change the modelling results considerably. The case shows that average minus standard deviation is the most conservative and least risky. It gives the displacements and yielded elements zone in four times broader range comparing to the average values scenario, which is the least conservative option. The two other cases need to be studied further. The results obtained from them are placed between most favorable and most adverse values. Taking the average values corrected by statistical error for the numerical analysis seems to be the best solution. Moreover, the confidence level can be adjusted depending on the object importance and the assumed risk level.

A statistical analysis of geomechanical data and its effect on rock mass numerical modeling: a case study