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My 2011 PAA presidential address (Lam 2011), the focus of Stan Becker’s comment, presented an optimistic perspective on how the world fared during the last 50 years of demographic history. An online commenter of a related op-ed column I wrote for the Los Angeles Times called me “Professor Happy Talk.” In my opinion, this optimistic view is entirely warranted. Although the last 50 years saw what was by far the fastest population growth the world has ever seen, it seems quite certain that this period also saw the largest improvements in the human condition of any 50 years in history. This remarkable achievement should surely make us optimistic about our ability to address the many complex challenges we will face in the next 50 years.  Although I am optimistic about the future of humanity, I am not as optimistic as Julian Simon’s statement that “every trend in material welfare has been improving—and promises to do so, indefinitely” (Simon 1996). That position ignores serious setbacks, such as a decrease in life expectancy in some African countries resulting from HIV/AIDS as well as many kinds of environmental degradation that are effectively losses in wealth. In my address, I discussed some areas in which the record of the last 50 years is less positive, including disappointing progress in reducing poverty in Africa and environmental problems, such as global warming. I concede, however, that these topics received only limited discussion. I deliberately focused on the positive because I believe that the positive trends dominate the negative and because the positive trends are often overlooked. I’m pleased that Becker has continued the discussion and given more attention to some of these important areas in which we face real challenges.  Becker notes areas in which the world does not look as rosy as the world I described in my address. Among these are depletion of aquifers, depletion of oil, global warming, and species loss. One possible response to these points is to counter with a list of additional indicators that suggest the world has been improving. Becker could respond with more indicators that have showed deterioration. We could continue this “half empty or half full” debate through many issues of Demography. The reality, of course, is that some things are getting better and some things are getting worse. I think the good far outweighs the bad. Rather than adding more items to my “half full” list, I will focus on some “big picture” questions raised in Becker’s comment.

demography

Reply to Stan Becker, “Has the World Really Survived the Population Bomb? (Commentary on “How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History”)”