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Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Models-3 community multi-scale air quality model (WRF-CMAQ), this study analyzes the impacts of meteorological conditions and changes in air pollutant emissions on the heavy air pollution episode occurred over North China around the 2020 Spring Festival (January to Februray 2020). Regional reductions in air pollutant emissions required to eliminate the PM 2.5 heavy pollution episode are also quantified. Our results found that meteorological conditions for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding "2+26" cities are the worst during the heavy pollution episode around the 2020 Spring Festival as compared with two other typical heavy pollution episodes that occurred after 2015. However, because of the substantial reductions in air pollutant emissions in the "2+26" cities in recent years, and the 32% extra reduction in emissions during January to February 2020 compared with the baseline emission levels of the autumn and winter of 2019 to 2020, the maximum PM 2.5 level during this heavy pollution episode around the 2020 Spring Festival was much lower than that in the other two typical episodes. Yet, these emission reductions are still not enough to eliminate regional heavy pollution episodes. Compared with the actual emission levels during January to February 2020, a 20% extra reduction in air pollutant emissions in the "2+26" cities (or a 45% extra reduction compared with baseline emission levels of the autumn and winter of 2019 to 2020) could help to generally eliminate regionwide severe pollution episodes, and avoid heavy pollution episodes that last three or more consecutive days in Beijing; a 40% extra reduction in emissions (or a 60% extra reduction compared with baseline emission levels of the autumn and winter of 2019 to 2020) could help to generally eliminate regionwide and continuous heavy pollution episodes. Our analysis finds that during the clean period after the heavy pollution episode around the 2020 Spring Festival, the regionwide heavy pollution episode would only occur with at least a 10-fold increase in air pollutant emissions.

Impacts of meteorology and emission variations on the heavy air pollution episode in North China around the 2020 Spring Festival