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Current solar wind prediction is based on the Wang & Sheeley empiricalrelationship between the solar wind speed observed at 1 AU and the rate ofmagnetic flux tube expansion (FTE) between the photosphere and the innercorona, where FTE is computed by coronal models that take the photospheric fluxdensity synoptic maps as their inner boundary conditions to extrapolate thephotospheric magnetic fields to deduce the coronal and the heliosphericmagnetic field configuration. Since these synoptic maps are among the mostwidely-used of all solar magnetic data products, the uncertainties in the modelpredictions that are caused by the uncertainties in the synoptic maps areworthy of study. However, such an estimate related to synoptic map constructionwas not available until Bertello et al. (Solar Physics, 289, 2014) obtained thespatial standard deviation synoptic maps; 98 Monte-Carlo realizations of thespatial standard deviation maps for each photospheric synoptic maps. In thispaper, we present an estimate of uncertainties in the solar wind speedpredicted at 1 AU by the CSSS model due to the uncertainties in thephotospheric synoptic maps. We also present a comparison of the coronal holelocations predicted by the models with the STEREO/SECCHI EUV synoptic maps. Inorder to quantify the extent of the uncertainties involved, we compared thepredicted speeds with the OMNI solar wind data during the same period (takingthe solar wind transit time into account) and obtained the root mean squareerror between them. To illustrate the significance of the uncertainty estimatein the solar wind prediction, we carried out the analysis for three Carringtonrotations, CR 2102, CR 2137 and CR 2160 at different phases of the solar cycle.The uncertainty estimate is critical information necessary for the current andfuture efforts of improving the solar wind prediction accuracies.

Uncertainty Estimates of Solar Wind Prediction using HMI Photospheric Vector and Spatial Standard Deviation Synoptic Maps