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Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world.We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model,the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reportednumber of infected cases for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 33countries and regions that have been or are undergoing major outbreaks. Wedissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drasticcontrol measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. Wequantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailedanalysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extremecontainment measures implemented by China were very effective with someinstructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience ofChina, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in othercountries. We identified that outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in westernEurope) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in severalamong them. The modeling results clearly show longer after-peak trajectories inwestern countries, in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peaktrajectory is characterized by a much faster decay. We identified three groupsof countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informativeimplications for the current global pandemic.

Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak: comparing the dynamics in the 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world