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The indicator that is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states (“ S 2”) is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than the growth rate of GDP. Under these circumstances, however, it no longer provides a reliable orientation for fiscal policy. I illustrate these findings based on simulations prepared for the Fifth Sustainability Report published by the German Federal Ministry of Finance. In addition, I discuss the interpretation of the indicator in a low-interest environment and the assumption that relevant interest rates may continue to be low if there are substantial challenges for fiscal sustainability,  e.g. , through demographic ageing.

Fiscal sustainability and low interest rates: what an indicator can(’t) tell