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We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throwstaken in the National Basketball Association (NBA). As free throws occur atunevenly spaced time points within a game, we consider a state-space modelformulated in continuous time to investigate serial dependence in players'success probabilities. In particular, the underlying state process can beinterpreted as a player's (latent) varying form and is modelled using theOrnstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our results support the existence of the hot hand,but the magnitude of the estimated effect is rather small.

Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball