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This paper presents a probabilistic method of evaluating the final moisture content (MC) of lumber obtained at the end of the kiln-drying process. The final MC data of three different drying tests conducted in past studies were analyzed using the bootstrap method. Target MC was tentatively set below 20 % in the analysis. Two characteristic parameters representing the final MC were estimated with bootstrap confidence intervals. These parameters were the standard deviation (SD) and the percentage of the population that met the MC requirement of less than 20 % (P20). The histograms of the final MC and the subsequent goodness-of-fit tests revealed that the final MC data of two drying tests did not follow any classical probability distributions, including Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull, and Gamma distributions, thus indicating the need for nonparametric statistics. The uncertainty of the final MC could be evaluated with the estimated SD and P20. After deriving the relationships between P20 and the corresponding probability that P20 is not achieved, we demonstrated how such relationships could provide a kiln operator with information to facilitate better decision-making in optimizing a drying schedule.

Probabilistic evaluation of the final moisture content of kiln-dried lumber using the bootstrap method