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Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquakeforecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localizedseismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbertspace and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from thephase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this PatternInformatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in itsinfancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivityinvestigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper,we attempt to optimize the PI approach by developing quantitative values for"predictive goodness" and analyzing possible variations in the proposedprocedure. In addition, we attempt to quantify the systematic dependence on thequality of the input catalog of historic data and develop methods for combiningcatalogs from regions of different seismic rates.Comment: 39 pages, 4 tables, 9 figures. Submitted to Pure and Applied  Geophysics on 30 November 200

pure and applied geophysics

Systematic Procedural and Sensitivity Analysis of the Pattern Informatics Method for Forecasting Large (M &gt; 5) Earthquake Events in Southern California