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We estimate the current theoretical uncertainty in supersymmetric dark matterpredictions by comparing several state-of-the-art calculations within theminimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). We consider standard neutralinodark matter scenarios -- coannihilation, well-tempering, pseudoscalar resonance-- and benchmark models both in the pMSSM framework and in frameworks withGrand Unified Theory (GUT)-scale unification of supersymmetric mass parameters.The pipelines we consider are constructed from the publicly available softwarepackages SOFTSUSY, SPheno, FeynHiggs, SusyHD, micrOMEGAs, and DarkSUSY. We findthat the theoretical uncertainty in the relic density as calculated bydifferent pipelines, in general, far exceeds the statistical errors reported bythe Planck collaboration. In GUT models, in particular, the relativediscrepancies in the results reported by different pipelines can be as much asa few orders of magnitude. We find that these discrepancies are especiallypronounced for for cases where the dark matter physics relies critically oncalculations related to electroweak symmetry breaking, which we investigate indetail, and for coannihilation models, where there is heightened sensitivity tothe sparticle spectrum. The dark matter annihilation cross section today andthe scattering cross section with nuclei also suffer appreciable theoreticaluncertainties, which, as experiments reach the relevant sensitivities, couldlead to uncertainty in conclusions regarding the viability or exclusion ofparticular models.

Theoretical Uncertainties in the Calculation of Supersymmetric Dark Matter Observables