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The majority of existing probabilistic model checking case studies are based on well understood theoretical models and distributions. However, real-life probabilistic systems usually involve distribution parameters whose values are obtained by empirical measurements and thus are subject to small perturbations. In this paper, we consider perturbation analysis of reachability in the parametric models of these systems (i.e., parametric Markov chains) equipped with the norm of absolute distance. Our main contribution is a method to compute the asymptotic bounds in the form of condition numbers for constrained reachability probabilities against perturbations of the distribution parameters of the system. The adequacy of the method is demonstrated through experiments with the Zeroconf protocol and the hopping frog problem.

Asymptotic Bounds for Quantitative Verification of Perturbed Probabilistic Systems