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Today's information technology departments have widely varying demands for resources due to unexpected surges in subscriber demands (e.g., a large response to a product promotion). Further complicating matters is that many re- source actions done in response to surges (e.g., provision- ing or de-provisioning an application server) have substan- tial delays (lead times) between initiating the resource ac- tion and its taking effect. This paper describes dynamic surge protection, an approach to handling unexpected work- load surges in systems that have lead times for resource ac- tions. Dynamic surge protection incorporates three tech- nologies: adaptive short-term forecasting, on-line capacity planning, and configuration management. The paper in- cludes empirical results from evaluations done on a research testbed, including favorable comparisons with a threshold- based heuristic. The results from an extended test also show that service objectives can be maintained cost-effectively.

Dynamic Surge Protection: An Approach to Handling Unexpected Workload Surges with Resource Actions that Have Lead Times